Comments on: Scottish Conservative MPs After the Next Election

By: Ewan Spence

Ewan Spence — Mon, 19 May 2008 18:35:21 +0000

Stuart,

Thanks for your thoughts. I’ll happily hold my head up and say that I;ve no idea just how much the suport for Lab and Lib-Dem has fallen. Certainly the 2007 Scottish Election is an indicator, but at the same time I’m still not convinced that the Scottish Conservatives will pick up the votes, I think they’ll be spread out around all the parties. A lot depends if any Scottish paper actually gets seriously behind the Tories, and what BBC Scotland will hand the SNP in terms of coverage.

Yes, there’ll be more Blue in Scotland after the votes. How much is probably the more interesting question. Even more fascinating, if you see a collapse of the Lib Dems in Scotland, and a loss of the UK vote, then they could drop to 25-35 seats. If the SNP pick up 20 (Salmond’s guess) then have an SNP-DUP-Plyd-Tory coalition in Westminster… the fun will never end!

By: Stuart Dickson

Stuart Dickson — Mon, 19 May 2008 17:42:37 +0000

Ewan, I think that you make some good assessments, however I do think that you seriously underestimate the extent to which the ground has shifted away from Labour and the Lib Dems in Scottish politics. Here’s a few of my guesstimates (all wildly wrong on the night, I am sure… ):

Argyll and Bute – 3-way marginal – Con, LD, SNP – anyone’s guess!!
Aberdeen North – SNP squeak it
Aberdeen South – 4-way marginal – one of the tightest fights in the country – anyone’s guess!!!! (Begg should just hold on)
Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock – 3-way marginal – Con, Lab, SNP – anyone’s guess!!
Ayrshire Central – 3-way marginal – Con, Lab, SNP – anyone’s guess!!
Ayrshire North and Arran – 3-way marginal – Con, Lab, SNP – anyone’s guess!!
Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk – Blue gain
Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East – Lab/SNP marginal – anyone’s guess!!
Dumfries and Galloway – I agree with you
Dunbartonshire East – narrow LD hold
Dunbartonshire West – Lab/SNP marginal – anyone’s guess!!
Dundee West – SNP gain
Dunfermline and West Fife – only chance of a Labour gain in the whole country! (fascinating contest)
East Lothian – 3-way marginal – Con, Lab, SNP – anyone’s guess!!
Edinburgh East – narrow SNP gain (largely thanks to a quality candidate in George Kerevan)
Edinburgh North and Leith – 4-way marginal – one of the tightest fights in the country – anyone’s guess!!!!
Edinburgh South – Con gain, LD 2nd
Edinburgh South West (Darling) – 3-way marginal – Con, Lab, SNP – anyone’s guess!!
Glasgow Central – narrow Labour hold
Glasgow North – Lab/SNP marginal – SNP squeak it
Glasgow North East – Lab/SNP marginal – anyone’s guess!!
Glasgow South – narrow Labour hold
Glenrothes – Lab/SNP marginal – anyone’s guess!!
Gordon 3-way marginal – Con, LD, SNP – anyone’s guess!!
East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow – Lab/SNP marginal – anyone’s guess!!
Falkirk – Lab/SNP marginal – anyone’s guess!!
Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey – LD should just about hold on
Inverclyde – Lab/SNP marginal – anyone’s guess!!
Kilmarnock and Loudoun (Des Browne) – SNP gain
Lanark and Hamilton East – Lab/SNP marginal – anyone’s guess!!
Linlithgow and East Falkirk – Lab/SNP marginal – anyone’s guess!!
Livingston – Lab/SNP marginal – anyone’s guess!!
Midlothian – Lab/SNP marginal – anyone’s guess!!
Ochil and South Perthshire – SNP gain
Paisley and Renfrewshire North – Lab/SNP marginal – anyone’s guess!!
Perth and North Perthshire – SNP hold
Renfrewshire East – 2-way marginal – Con squeak it
Stirling – 3-way marginal – Con, Lab, SNP – anyone’s guess!!

By: Tom Robinson

Tom Robinson — Tue, 13 May 2008 13:25:38 +0000

I remain to be convinced that the SNP are not serious runners even for Westminster in Stirling given their stunning Holyrood victory (I know the seats are not identical).

This seat is not simply a Labour/Tory marginal

By: yucca

yucca — Tue, 13 May 2008 13:24:28 +0000

just to report that the LibDems are already leafleting in Edinburgh South: they got hold of the electoral register and are sending ‘personal’ letters to all the new entries, including myself (my flat got four ‘personal’ letters from the libdem candidate yesterday);

but I agree with you: if the swing at the next general election will be enough to give the Tories a stable majority, then Edinburgh South is the kind of place they’ll take… poor libdems, really…

By: Thomas Cussans

Thomas Cussans — Tue, 13 May 2008 12:30:14 +0000

Yes, you’re right. It is plural. Which is why MPs does not have an apostrophe.

To write, ‘Scottish Conservative MP’s … ‘ is a possessive referring, ironically, to a single Scottish Conservative MP.

(Thomas, yes you’re right on the apostrophe point. Now tweaked. – Ewan)

By: Robbie

Robbie — Tue, 13 May 2008 11:33:35 +0000

Keep an eye on East Dunbartonshire – it includes Bearsden & Milngavie and is historically very promiscuous (has been SNP, Tory, Labour and now Lib Dem in the last 25 years. But it only went Labour due to boundary changes when Bearsden & Milngavie were split into separate constituencies, and now they’re back together).

A Tory gain in Glasgow’s suburbs? It’s a real possibility.

By: Richard Havers

Richard Havers — Mon, 12 May 2008 20:15:29 +0000

The SNP have done themselves no favours in Perthshire over the recent windfarm decision. It could give people second thoughts. I think the LibDems will struggle to get visibility.

By: Ewan Spence

Ewan Spence — Mon, 12 May 2008 18:08:20 +0000

Good point on Edinburgh South West (checks figures, Labour 17476, Con 1234, LibDem 9252 at General Election 2005), and yet again it’s the 10p tax band issue that’s going to figure highly in that one – and again it’s going to be one of those close Con/LibDem seats against Labour that seems to figure highly in the Edinburgh seats.

It’s going to come down to whether people can stomach voting Conservative in enough numbers, or if the Dodgy Lib Dem Bar Graphs are stronger when people reach the polling booths.

By: Daibhi Anseo

Daibhi Anseo — Mon, 12 May 2008 17:51:28 +0000

North to the Libs…not going to happen. They have no body heat on the ground for campaigning. Their big target has got to be South (and I`ll think they’ll it this time with Fred M), the Tories will be focussing their efforts in South West to unseat Al Darling (and I think they’ll do it.

East will go to the SNP and George Kerevan. Well that’s my thoughts at this stage anyway.