Without Scotland, Can Labour Retain The Commons?

It’s worth pointing out in all the fun of the Union Referendums, that if Scotland were to leave the Union, or have a Scottish Parliament with greatly increased powers in place of a large number of Scottish MP’s in the House Of Commons, the loss of the central belt seats would rob Labour of a significant number of ‘safe’ seats that they rely on for the balance of power in the Commons.

It’s fair to say that if ‘events, dear boy’ shore up some of the Labour vote and we end up with a hung parliament in 2009/2010, those scottish seats are going to be vital to keeping the numbers strong. If Labour does melt down in Scotland, then the chances of anything other than a Conservative majority are slim. Which is why the loss of the Scottish Parliament has been so painful, and why ‘what to do with Wendy?’ is going to be a headache for a long time to come.

And that likely Conservative majority? I suspect that was Alex Salmond’s reading of the upcoming situation, and why a late referendum (2010/2011), with Cameron in Number 10, was the best hope of his generation to see a successful ‘independence’ vote.

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Explore posts in the same categories: Commentary, Conservative, Labour, SNP

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