Posted tagged ‘squeeze’

Tories to the Left, SNP to the Right… Labour Stuck in the Middle

May 18, 2008

Look I know it’s not accurate, I know it doesn’t go down to the constituency level, and that it’s not as simple as this… but still, is this the trend that we’ll be looking at in terms of seats and voting at the next General Election?

Speculative and Rough

In very broad strokes, the Labour vote and the Labour geography is going to get squeezed. The Lib Dems are going to solidify in the South West, with a few gains around the country, and Labour will be lucky to retian a strong ‘core’ vote in the midlands and the north of England.

On the opinion polls out in today’s Sunday papers, Labour are looking at almost no representation in the South East outside of the capital. How far the ‘border’ of the Conservative gains will climb up the country is going to determine the majority of the next Parliament. Perhaps we just need Jeremy Vine and a climbing Line in the studio to show us what we need to know?

And then there’s Scotland. You might as well throw away the electoral seat calculators that are in use at the moment, because I don’t think they’ve taken into account the sea change that the Scottish Parliament has had on the voters. The SNP are on the rise, Alex Salmond reckons 20 seats for the SNP is a good target for the next General Election (so obviously not all of Scotland is turning SNP yellow…), and given the general distaste of Labour, even before the fun of the WendyRendum, it’s going to be a fight for the party to retain their strength in the central belt.

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